Category: Research

The US 10-year bond and Nigeria

Nigerian markets are famous for not correlating with global markets, but recently it has been wise to pay attention to global bond markets.  The rise of the US government 10-year

Q4 GDP and the implications for markets

Q4 2020 GDP was reported last week and it showed Nigeria leaving recession – just. Q4 2020 growth was 0.11% year-on-year (y/y). The non-oil economy reached a respectable level of

Interest rates: how much higher?

How much higher are Nigerian Treasury Bill rates going to rise this year? We think that there are several months of rising rates ahead of us and that we should

Eurobonds and foreign financing

What will be the Federal Government of Nigeria’s (FGN) next move when it comes to financing its deficit? Movements in the foreign exchange and open market operation (OMO) markets last

Why inflation is important

Last week the Monetary Policy Council of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) concluded its two-day meeting by leaving its key policy rate unchanged at 11.50%. After two cuts during

MPC decision today

The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria concludes its bi-monthly meeting later today.  The economy may be close to exiting recession and inflation is going up

Nigerian GDP better than thought

When the World Bank recently published its Global Economics Prospects, we were surprised to see a 4.1% recession estimated for Nigeria in 2020.  In our view, the Nigerian economy is

Naira crawling peg?

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) follows a managed exchange rate policy, but is it moving towards a crawling peg?  Last year saw several changes in the CBN’s official rate,

A year in two charts

2020 was dominated by the Covid-19 pandemic, the crash in commodity prices and the global recession. Right? Not quite. Looking back over the past 12 months in Nigeria we reason

Interest rates on the rise

Nigerian market interest rates are on the rise. This marks the end of the long – over a year – march south. But what next? In our view, the key

  • Featured
Year Ahead-Re-risking the financial system

Oil prices: In a global oil market threatened with over-supply, it appears that OPEC, and its ally Russia, are doing a good job of limiting production.

  • Featured
Year Ahead-Re-risking the financial system

Year Ahead 2020: Re-risking the financial system

Oil prices: In a global oil market threatened with over-supply, it appears that OPEC, and its ally Russia, are doing a good job of limiting production.