Category: Research

Doubts over the global recovery

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised downwards its estimates of global economic activity. The global economy is now forecast to contract by 4.9% this year, with Nigeria due to

A difficult fiscal position

The fiscal position of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) is, not surprisingly, tight, as oil prices have crashed and economic growth has slowed down. As we describe below, being

The mystery of Naira liquidity

When a currency is under pressure you expect interest rates to go up, and the long-term (we mean 10-year) lesson is that this generally happens in Nigeria. But is it

Oil back to normal?

The confusing thing about oil prices is that, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia agreed to production cuts in mid-April, prices continued to fall for

Nigeria GDP: Sliding into recession

On Monday we learned about Q1 2020 GDP, up by 1.87% year-on-year (Q4 2019: +2.27% y/y) with Non-oil growth at just 1.55% y/y. The Non-oil growth drivers were Agriculture and

Economic policy outcomes

Last week the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) surprised the market by cutting its policy rate from 13.50% to 12.50%, a clear signal that it approves of market interest rates

Low interest rates in a low-growth economy

The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) meets this week to consider its policy rate and the overall direction of interest rates. As we pointed

Breathing space for FX reserves

The foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are going up again. This is largely thanks to public-sector loans (such as the US$3.4bn facility granted recently by

The curious equity market rally

The Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NSE-ASI) staged a rally last week (see Model Equity Portfolio), reflecting optimism. Part of that optimism came from market speculation, later confirmed, of a

  • Featured
Year Ahead-Re-risking the financial system

Oil prices: In a global oil market threatened with over-supply, it appears that OPEC, and its ally Russia, are doing a good job of limiting production.

  • Featured
Year Ahead-Re-risking the financial system

Year Ahead 2020: Re-risking the financial system

Oil prices: In a global oil market threatened with over-supply, it appears that OPEC, and its ally Russia, are doing a good job of limiting production.