Category: Nigeria Weekly

In the hands of OPEC+

As we often write, Nigeria’s public finances – all the way from trade balances through to the Federal Government’s budget – work well when oil trades over US$50.00/bbl. We have

The policy mix and the markets

The past three weeks have seen an unusual number of macroeconomic changes. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced plans to clear the backlog of foreign currency demands and began

Progress in the P&ID case

It is easy to forget – because the case rumbles on in foreign courtrooms – the danger posed to the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) by the award against it

The oil price/production paradox

Nigeria’s public finances work well when oil prices are above US$50.00/bbl (better still, above US$60.00/bbl). Though prices are trending in that direction the prospect the Democratic Party winning November’s presidential

GDP slumps as expected

Nigeria’s Q2 GDP performance was released this morning, with GDP down 6.10% year-on-year and non-oil GDP down 6.05% y/y. This was not a surprise (although one forecast poll predicted a

Cracks in the bond market?

From mid-March through to the beginning of this month, the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) bond market was a one-way bet, with yields tightening and prices moving up steadily. Two

FX Policy

Last week we received a lot of questions about the foreign exchange markets. Was the World Bank forcing the Nigeria’s hand in demanding unification of all exchange rates? Why was

The risk in the duration trade

Talking with clients about our report ‘Navigating the Capital Market; the Investors’ Dilemma’, 14 July 2020 we sometimes hear back that Federal Government of Nigeria bonds are safe while equities

The commodity price conundrum

Global equity markets have been trending up this month. Markets are showing confidence in a global economic rebound, despite significant setbacks from the rising number of recorded Covid-19 cases in

The mystery of the parallel exchange rate

Until recently, the behaviour of the parallel exchange rate this year has been a mystery. Why did it not respond to pent-up demand for US dollars by adjusting rapidly? The

  • Featured
Year Ahead-Re-risking the financial system

Oil prices: In a global oil market threatened with over-supply, it appears that OPEC, and its ally Russia, are doing a good job of limiting production.

  • Featured
Year Ahead-Re-risking the financial system

Year Ahead 2020: Re-risking the financial system

Oil prices: In a global oil market threatened with over-supply, it appears that OPEC, and its ally Russia, are doing a good job of limiting production.