Economic Review and 2022 Outlook – Blend of Optimism and Uncertainty

Nigeria’s economy has posted GDP expansion for four quarters since its last recession recorded in 2020. However, the current growth rate levels are unable to halt the steady decline in incomes and the rise in poverty. Our in-house estimates assume GDP at current market prices as high as pre-pandemic levels (2019). We considered increased vaccination rate, stable oil prices above USD65/b and sustained growth in the major sectors, among other factors. Consumption patterns are relatively better and are almost mirroring pre-pandemic levels. This year, we expect some fiscal stimulus on the back of the FGN’s capital expenses. Furthermore, we anticipate investment spending in targeted sectors. Looking ahead, overall pre-election expenditure towards the 2023 general elections should also contribute to the growth drive. For 2022, we expect a GDP growth of 2.6% y/y.

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