Category: Research

Breathing space for FX reserves

The foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are going up again. This is largely thanks to public-sector loans (such as the US$3.4bn facility granted recently by

The curious equity market rally

The Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NSE-ASI) staged a rally last week (see Model Equity Portfolio), reflecting optimism. Part of that optimism came from market speculation, later confirmed, of a

The strange case of Africa and COVID-19

Last week several countries, including Nigeria, announced a gradually loosening of lock-down restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. A gradual return to normal life is planned because it is feared

Short and long currency cycles

Last we noted that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is in no hurry to raise market interest rates and that – most of the time – Nigeria’s commercial banks

Interest rate conundrum

The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) is proposing a revised budget for 2020 which is designed to generate a deficit in the region of N5.2 trillion (US$13.5 billion), up from

Oil prices, the new normal

The Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NSE-ASI) staged a rally last week (see Model Equity Portfolio), reflecting optimism. Part of that optimism came from market speculation, later confirmed, of a

Sending flares to the world

Nigeria needs help to tide it through the coronavirus lock-down. Without the kind of financial penetration and large government of developed countries, it is very difficult for it to inject

Stimulus in a time of austerity

Last week the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 13.50%, thus becoming one of the few central banks

Foreign exchange flexibility

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) last Friday changed the rate in the principal foreign exchange markets by 3.6% in US dollar terms. This looks like a swift adjustment to

Global volatility at 10-year high

The VIX Index, a US index of volatility, stands at its highest level since the global financial crash of 2008. Volatility is not the same thing as risk, but volatility

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Year Ahead-Re-risking the financial system

Year Ahead 2020: Re-risking the financial system

Oil prices: In a global oil market threatened with over-supply, it appears that OPEC, and its ally Russia, are doing a good job of limiting production.