Categories
Coronation Insights

Coronation Economic Note: eNaira- Yay or Nay?

eNaira- Yay or Nay?

In a recent press statement, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) stated its plans to launch its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot scheme called the eNaira on 1 October 2021 with Bitt Inc, a financial technology company that utilises blockchain and distributed ledger technology to facilitate secure peer-to-peer transactions, as a technical partner.

The eNaira is an electronic record or digital token of the naira issued and regulated by the CBN. It is expected to be a legal tender for the country and have a non-interest-bearing status, as well as a transaction limit for customers.

Globally, there has been interest surrounding CBDCs among central banks, governments and the private sector. The CBN has been researching CBDCs since 2017. The concept primarily originated on the back of the popularity of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, among others. It has also gained more traction following the onset of the covid-19 pandemic and a global need to distribute as well as efficiently track economic stimulus funding, prevent illicit activity and illegal transactions. As such, the eNaira aims to bring the best of both worlds—the convenience and security of digital cryptocurrencies alongside the traditional banking system’s regulations.

We understand that to use the eNaira to transact, users need to download the speed wallet, validate their account on the wallet by using either their phone number, national identity number (NIN) or bank verification number (BVN). In addition, users will be able to transfer money through peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions from their ewallets to other wallet holders and person-to-merchant/business.
The structure of the eNaira is similar to a commercial bank account. However, it is non-interest bearing. Excluding executing and managing digital currency tokens, the CBN would be able to gather, analyse and store data on eNaira transactions. The role of deposit money banks would be to take responsibility for conducting KYC and AML/CFT compliance compatibility on merchant eNaira wallets as well as monitoring illicit activity.

For developing countries, Nigeria inclusive, a significant portion of the population remains unbanked. A CBDC such as the eNaira can assist with boosting financial inclusion across the economy given that unbanked nationals often cite distance and transportation costs to banks as a major hindrance to owning a bank account.

Another advantage of the eNaira is the potential for simplifying monetary policy implementation by making it easier to channel money. Remittances also represent one of the most compelling usages for digital currencies by reducing the number of intermediaries, cost, opacity, and time required for cross-border payments. The eNaira could also eliminate some transaction costs, augment expediency, and offer seamless payment services.

However, unlike most cryptocurrencies, the centralised nature of the eNaira means that the CBN would have oversight on all eNaira accounts. Since 2014, at least 60 central banks have been exploring CBDCs. For instance, the Digital Yuan project in The People’s Republic of China is undergoing trials, with at least c.2bn Yuan (approximately USD300m). In addition, countries like the Bahamas, Cambodia, Ukraine, and others have also started CBDC projects.

By eliminating intermediaries, the eNaira could be a reliable low-cost payment solution for consumers and businesses. In addition, the swiftness and ease of business transfers should bolster economic activities, resulting in a broader positive impact on the economy. Furthermore, the eNaira could indirectly assist with expanding the FGN’s tax-net.

Team

E-mail: coronationresearch@coronationmb.com
Tel: +234 (0) 1-2797640-43

Categories
Coronation Insights

Coronation Fixed Income and Exchange Rate (CFEX) Update

Summary

  • Opening market liquidity was reported at NGN445.4bn on Friday (03 Sep ‘21). Overnight and repo rates closed within a range of 10.0-13.5%. The secondary market for NTBs was relatively active. As a result, the average NTB yield declined by 34bps over the week to close at 4.6%, while the average yield for OMO bills was up by 1bps w/w to close at 6.1%. The secondary market for FGN bonds was active on the back of improved system liquidity as average yield declined by 11bps to close at 11.0%. At the Eurobond market, average yield of the sovereigns under our coverage declined by 19bps to 5.7%.

  • On Thursday last week, the CBN sold NGN50.0bn worth of OMO bills to market participants and maintained the stop rates across the three tenors, unchanged from prior auctions (82-day: 7.0%, 152-day: 8.5%, and 327-day: 10.1%).

  • US nonfarm payroll data show a less-than-expected increase of 235,000 from the 943,000 recorded in July. China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) declined to 50.1 in August from 50.4 recorded in the previous month, hitting its lowest level since Feb ’20. The challenges hindering China’s productivity include widespread flooding, tough social-distancing measures at ports, chip shortages, far tighter regulation in some industries, among others.

Repo rates and NTB yields (%)

Repo Current Previous NTB Current Previous
Overnight 13.5 8.50 NTB 25/11/21 3.20 3.29
30D 10.0 9.0 NTB 24/02/22 4.33 5.10
90D 12.5 10.5 NTB 26/05/22 6.61 6.61
180D 13.0 10.5 NTB 14/07/22 6.68 6.68
OBB 13.0 8.3      

FGN bonds and Eurobonds

Security Price (close) Yield (close, %) Change (bps)
16.39% FGN Jan’22 104.81 4.01 -52
14.20% FGN Mar’24 109.39 9.91 10
12.50% FGN Jan’26 107.23 10.40 -22
16.2884% FGN Mar’27 120.87 11.13 1
13.98% FGN Feb’28 112.32 11.25 -15
12.15% FGN Jul’34 100.66 12.04 0
12.50% FGN Mar’35 101.61 12.25 -35
12.40% FGN Mar’36 100.93 12.26 -27
16.2499% FGN Apr’37 127.37 12.27 -21
12.98% FGN Mar’50 102.70 12.63 -8
6.38%FGN ’23 USD 106.40 2.79 -14
8.75% FGN ’31 USD 113.68 6.75 -23
7.88%FGN ’32 USD 108.13 6.77 -24
7.63% FGN ’47 USD 100.73 7.56 -15
10.50% Access ’21 USD 100.57 5.25 -33
7.38% Zenith ’22 USD 103.12 3.00 -4
7.75% UBA ’22 USD 103.26 3.30 -10

FX dynamics

Last week, the NAFEX rate appreciated by 0.1% or NGN0.5 to close at NGN411.5/USD. However, the Naira depreciated by 1.2% or NGN6.0 in the parallel market to close at NGN530.0/USD. The depreciation can be partly attributed to the increased demand for fx by importers. As a result, the gap between the I&E window and parallel market rate now stands at 28.8%. In the forwards market, the rate depreciated at the 1-month (-0.4% to NGN413.25/USD), 3-month (-0.8% to NGN417.68/USD) contracts.

Based on data from the FMDQ, NAFEX turnover showed a w/w decline of USD89m from USD216.5m to USD127.5m on Friday. The I&E window (NAFEX) recorded inflows of USD403m with the CBN accounting for 27.02%, the FPIs accounting for 27.07%, non-bank corporates accounting for 22.65%, and others accounting for 23.26%.

Over the past week, Nigeria’s external reserves increased by 1.5% to USD34.1bn. In our view, the FGN’s imminent Eurobond issuance and the allocation from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Special Drawing Right (USD3.4bn) are likely to shore up fx reserves. Amidst these developments, we expect the NAFEX rate to trade range-bound (NGN410.00/USD – NGN415.00/USD) in the near term.

Team

E-mail: coronationresearch@coronationmb.com
Tel: +234 (0) 1-2797640-43